Lead and bring calculator
Enter both sixes from team preview. You get your opponent’s likely four and lead, and the leads and fours of yours that have won most in similar ladder matchups.
Each number starts from how often a species or pair is brought, led and wins across 281,093 M-C ladder games, then shifts it by how that changes against each species on the other side and next to each teammate. Thin cells are pulled toward the overall rate, so rare species and pairings stay close to average. These are estimates from ladder play, not a battle simulation, and a lead’s win rate comes from the players who chose it (method).
How well it predicts
Tables fit on games through Sep 24, then tested on 74,567 later games (Sep 25–28, 2026, the last day partial).
- Their lead, top guess
- 22.3%of top guesses right; 47.3% in our top three. Guessing their most common lead pair: 12.9%.
- Their four
- 74.5%of the mons they showed were in our top four. Top four by bring rate alone: 70.4%.
- Led our pick
- 55.6%win rate over 15,958 sides, against 49.3% for every other lead.
- Brought our four
- 54.7%win rate over 10,391 sides, against 49.4% otherwise.
The last two are observational: better players may simply pick the same leads the ladder data favours, so they show agreement, not that following the pick causes wins. For scale, the mimikyu model for Regulation M-B reported 23.3% lead top-1 and 66.1% bring recall on different data and a different split, so compare loosely. Full backtest in the method notes.