Incineroar + Rillaboom is the pair you will see most on the Reg M-C ladder. In games where both sides revealed all four of their picks, it was brought 25,554 times by 5,217 different players, and it won 53.3% (95% CI 52.7–53.9, n 25,554). That is a clear, well-sampled edge.
Put the same two on the field at turn 1 and the picture flips. Sides that led with Incineroar + Rillaboom won 43.5% (95% CI 40.9–46.1, n 1,421). The two intervals are nowhere near each other. Of the 96 lead pairs that clear the sample bar on the leads page, this is the second-worst.
- Brought together53.3
- On the team together51.3
- Led together43.5
The ladder mostly knows already
This is not a hidden edge that nobody has found. Among sides with both species in their preview, only 1,209 of 72,076 games opened with the two together, under 2%. Most players already split them up. What the numbers add is the size of the gap, and which openings do win for teams built around the pair.
The chart below takes every side with both Incineroar and Rillaboom in the preview (72,751 games, 7,195 players) and sorts it by what it led. Leading Incineroar without Rillaboom won 52.1% (95% CI 51.5–52.7, n 25,428). Leading neither won 51.3% (95% CI 50.7–51.9, n 30,241). Leading Rillaboom without Incineroar won 50.4% (95% CI 49.6–51.2, n 15,198). Leading both won 44.4% (95% CI 41.6–47.2, n 1,209). Games where both previews held the pair are left out, since one side of each must win.
- Leads Incineroar, not Rillaboom52.1
- Leads neither51.3
- Leads Rillaboom, not Incineroar50.4
- Leads both44.4
Which leads do win
For teams with both, 10 specific lead pairs clear the bar (n ≥ 500, a 95% interval no wider than ±3 points, and 50 or more distinct players). The best is Floette-Eternal + Incineroar, at 57.9% (95% CI 55.5–60.3, n 1,611) across 726 players. Gengar + Incineroar is the most common of these openings and wins 53.9% (95% CI 52.4–55.3, n 4,504). Gengar + Rillaboom wins 53.1% (95% CI 50.7–55.5, n 1,710).
Incineroar + Rillaboom itself is last of the ten. Four of the top five openings put Incineroar on the field and keep Rillaboom in the back.
- Floette-Eternal + Incineroar57.9
- Gengar + Incineroar53.9
- Gengar + Rillaboom53.1
- Gholdengo + Incineroar52.8
- Garchomp + Incineroar51.4
- Floette-Eternal + Rillaboom50.9
- Incineroar + Salamence50.3
- Incineroar + Raichu49.4
- Rillaboom + Sneasler47.6
- Incineroar + Rillaboom44.4
Treat the order in the middle of this list loosely. From Gholdengo + Incineroar down to Incineroar + Raichu, the intervals overlap, so those five are not clearly different from one another. The ends of the list are the clear part.
Why might this be?
The data shows that the pair does worse as a lead. It cannot show why. What follows are hypotheses from how the two Pokémon work, not findings. None of them has been tested here.
The last hypothesis is a warning about all lead numbers on this site. A lead win rate is the win rate of the players who chose that lead into the teams they faced. It is not what the pair would do if forced into every game (more on leads).
Does it hold above 1300?
When both players are rated 1300 or higher, the brought pair still wins 52.1% (95% CI 50.8–53.3, n 6,307). The lead sample is too small to say much: 44.2% (95% CI 36.8–51.8, n 163). That interval is wide, and it sits below the bar the site uses to rank a pair. The direction matches, but the ≥ 1300 lead number alone would not support a claim.
What to take from it
- Bring the pair. Among the five most-brought pairs, only Archaludon + Pelipper has a better record.
- Think twice before opening with both. The ladder’s own choices point to Incineroar up front with a partner such as Floette-Eternal or Gengar, and Rillaboom held back.
- Treat the reasons above as ideas to test in your own games, not results.
The calculator on this site ranks your leads against a specific opposing six, using the same data. It is a better guide for a given game than any single average here.
Every number here comes from the snapshot above, frozen in this file. Win rates carry 95% Wilson intervals, which assume independent games; see player clustering.